Monday, January 7, 2008

January 7 - Cover Short SBUX

Okay, sometimes it's better to be lucky. Earlier in the trading session I decided to cover my short position in Starbucks (SBUX). After the close of trading today, Starbucks announced that CEO Jim McDonald was being ousted and replaced by founder and chairman Howard Schultz.

Because of the view of firing a floundering CEO will be seen as positive news for the stock, and I expect it to open to big gains on Tuesday, anyone that took my recommendation to Short SBUX would be wise to cover the short and protect the remaining gain.

Looking back at some other recent recommendations, Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) has pulled back to its 50-day moving average, bouncing off that support level in today's trade. The fundamental reasons for buying this stock remain intact, and I like it at this price point of $91.28. However, the stock sold off in high volume trade a big 5.5% today, and I will need to see some support and strength in the stock before adding to this position. Continued weakness and breaking the 50-day support would likely take any technical traders to sell, causing more weakness. Wait with this position to see some rebound with strength.

Mindray Medical Int'l (MR) is less sensitive since this stock is a play on their upcoming 12 months of product lines coming out. I would feel comfortable adding to this stock at the current $40.05 price.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is harder to figure. Great story, fundamentally strong, but because it sells at a P/E of 50 it does require confidence of its shareholders. It is off 15% from its highs - in a quick one week sell-off. I still like the company, but the stock itself may now be under pressure. Volume today picked up in another down day. I am currently holding my position but watching it very closely.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) has surprised me in its weakness, down now to $23.67 and a P/E of 6, despite record earnings, no negative news, and forecast of strong price of eggs. I am looking at adding to this position. Effective March 1, a new variable dividend will pay out based on its earnings for the quarter, which I expect to be healthy quarters the next two accounting periods. High short interest means there should be a support for buy-backs and possible short squeeze if the price starts to run. If the next quarter numbers are also strong, I hope to see the price run up significantly.

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